Is this really a French "B" team - who would know? It seems this conjecture has mainly come about because they have picked a halfback, Morgan Parra, at number 10 & moved Servat to the bench. Yet many All Black fans want a halfback (Weepu) as back up to Dan Carter & everyone knows the All Blacks love rest & rotation more than anyone else. All I know is that you have to respect the French at a RWC & Buck Shelford's talk of winning by 40 points is not going to help the All Black cause.
While I applaud the Daggy Boy & Whitelock selections, I still have a few reservations about this side.
With the tournament kicking off today its time to have a quick look at some of the odds on offer. Today we'll survey the odds for winning the William Webb Ellis Trophy.
The All Blacks are favourites at a very short priced $1-65 with Australia at $4 then South Africa at $7-50. The 3 top northern hemisphere sides are England at $12 then France at $17 followed by Ireland at $40. For me the odds on the All Blacks are just too short & I would look for some value from Aussie, the Boks & also England.
Lang Park, now known as Suncorp Stadium, has been the scene of many a fierce battle (who could ever forget Kevin Tamati & Greg Dowling in 1985) and Saturday's night test promises to be another classic encounter. I may sound like a broken record but matches between these countries tend to come down to whether the Wallabies can handle the All Black forward pack and the answer normally is NO.
With the forecast for a wet night this becomes even more critical along with the resultant tactical kicking in the conditions. Aussie will look to draw strength from the venue & have included 9 Banana Benders in their squad (as well as others like Moore who are from there).
Tana is back but can he lead Counties to the ultimate glory - the capture of the Ranfurly Shield? Forget the talk of playing for NPC points this is all about the Shield as any Counties supporter will tell you.
For those of us who had to endure the heartache of Palmerston North in '77, Eden Park in '79, Waikato in '81, robbery at Lancaster Park in '82 & then Eden Park again in '85, a Counties shield challenge often brings back bitter memories.
I am really not too sure which way to turn this weekend which means I should leave this game alone but as Anonymous seems to enjoy ridiculing me each week & the emotional hedge is leading to some real enjoyment watching these games at the pub I can't turn away from that strategy.
A feisty capacity crowd of 18,000 will be packed into Rugby Park, Invercargill this weekend for a reminder of the glory days of NZ provincial rugby when the Ranfurly Shield challenge & local rivalries meant everything.
Otago haven't held the Shield since 1957 & were unsuccessful in 2 challenges last year. Meanwhile Southland get the chance to play in front of a packed crowd in what will be the biggest game of their lives for many of the team (especially compared to playing for the Highlanders).
Well having already been burnt at the TAB by two All Blacks 13 & over margins am I going to be conservative again? I hate to say it but yes I am.
The Aussies have a lot to play for this week & despite thinking the All Blacks will have too much firepower for them I am (once again) going to take the All Blacks by 12 points & under at $2-75 & then a small emotional hedge on Aussie by 12 points & under at $4-60.
At the risk of sounding repetitive & boring I see no reason to change from the selections I took last week though the South Africans getting a 8.5 point start is very tempting.
I expect a tighter encounter and the probability of wet weather leads me once gain to the All Blacks to win by a margin of 12 & under at $2-60 & the Springboks to win by a margin of 12 & under at a very healthy $4-75. Obviously the second option covers the emotional hedge.
I'm tipping the All Blacks to have a bit too much desire at Eden Park for the Boks & a narrow 6 point victory. Saying that this test definitely fits the bill for the emotional hedge strategy I've previously outlined.
Given the likely closeness of the struggle & the possibility of wet weather I can't see either team getting out beyond a 12 point margin so I am going to take a slice of the All Blacks to win by 12 & under at $2-70 & also the Springboks to win by 12 & under at $3-40. About evenly weighted to take that emotional hedge into account!
The TAB have opened the book on this year's NPC & may have been influenced by the Sonny Bill Williams factor in announcing Canterbury as favourites at a rather short price of $2-50.
