punting

Tana is back but can he lead Counties to the ultimate glory - the capture of the Ranfurly Shield?  Forget the talk of playing for NPC points this is all about the Shield as any Counties supporter will tell you.
 
For those of us who had to endure the heartache of Palmerston North in '77, Eden Park in '79, Waikato in '81, robbery at Lancaster Park in '82 & then Eden Park again in '85, a Counties shield challenge often brings back bitter memories.

I am really not too sure which way to turn this weekend which means I should leave this game alone but as Anonymous seems to enjoy ridiculing me each week & the emotional hedge is leading to some real enjoyment watching these games at the pub I can't turn away from that strategy.

A feisty capacity crowd of 18,000 will be packed into Rugby Park, Invercargill this weekend for a reminder of the glory days of NZ provincial rugby when the Ranfurly Shield challenge & local rivalries meant everything. 
 
Otago haven't held the Shield since 1957 & were unsuccessful in 2 challenges last year. Meanwhile Southland get the chance to play in front of a packed crowd in what will be the biggest game of their lives for many of the team (especially compared to playing for the Highlanders).

Well having already been burnt at the TAB by two All Blacks 13 & over margins am I going to be conservative again?  I hate to say it but yes I am. 
 
The Aussies have a lot to play for this week & despite thinking the All Blacks will have too much firepower for them I am (once again) going to take the All Blacks by 12 points & under at $2-75 & then a small emotional hedge on Aussie by 12 points & under at $4-60.

At the risk of sounding repetitive & boring I see no reason to change from the selections I took last week though the South Africans getting a 8.5 point start is very tempting.
 
I expect a tighter encounter and the probability of wet weather leads me once gain to the All Blacks to win by a margin of 12 & under at $2-60 & the Springboks to win by a margin of 12 & under at a very healthy $4-75.  Obviously the second option covers the emotional hedge.

I'm tipping the All Blacks to have a bit too much desire at Eden Park for the Boks & a narrow 6 point victory.  Saying that this test definitely fits the bill for the emotional hedge strategy I've previously outlined.
 
Given the likely closeness of the struggle & the possibility of wet weather I can't see either team getting out beyond a 12 point margin so I am going to take a slice of the All Blacks to win by 12 & under at $2-70 & also the Springboks to win by 12 & under at $3-40.  About evenly weighted to take that emotional hedge into account!

The TAB have opened the book on this year's NPC & may have been influenced by the Sonny Bill Williams factor in announcing Canterbury as favourites at a rather short price of $2-50.
 

Heh I've even managed to post this before all the games have been played!
 
So back on the horse after a losing week – as always the question is – where is the value?

As I am getting later & later in posting so this is a quick review of last week’s punts which were a bit of a disaster.
 

A bit late posting this but always worth a laugh to see how wrong you were!