Will the Springbok jinx at Eden Park be put to bed this weekend? The Boks haven't won there since 1937 & will be very keen to put an end to that record on the ground that will probably host a semi final between the two teams in next year's World Cup. 1937 was also the last time a Japie side won 2 tests in a row in NZ & this has already been talked about as the goal for this year's side.
Meanwhile the All Blacks have not lost to anyone at Eden Park for 16 years & will be desperate to beat the Boks after being swept by them last year.
So how much does history stand for & what are the crucial areas of Saturday's clash ........
Well the last time these two sides clashed in Auckland was in 2001 so you can't read too much from the record book. The Boks have the recent history of winning their last 2 tests on NZ soil. However the All Blacks seem to lift in front of an Eden Park crowd & will want it to remain the fortress it has become.
Both teams showed solid form against their northern hemisphere opponents in the build up to this test & took the opportunuity to try a few new players at the international level. Both seem to have returned to the tried & trusted experienced players for this clash.
It is about as strong a pack as the All Blacks can field (given the injuries to Spiderman & the Seal Shooter) & they will look to lay a solid platform from which Carter can control the game. The return of Nonu also adds more go forward in midfield for the forwards to build off.
On the negative side will the All Blacks still be haunted by those 3 losses to the Springboks last year? Let's hope not. Also some of the lineup are coming off injury breaks & have not yet proven that they are capable of the all-out effort required in such a test match. There is also a green look to the All Blacks bench should they be required.
On the other hand the Boks come into this test full of confidence & chock full of experience. Despite this I think they are still a bit unsure as to what is their top front row with it having changed in all 3 positions from last year. More significantly they are missing their general, Fourie du Preez, & it will be interestying to see the effect that has on Morne Steyn. Ricky Januarie played well against Wales but has since slipped back to the form that left him on the bench for the Stormers.
The key areas for me are .....
- If it is wet as forecast who can handle it better? I think the All Blacks are probably more used to it.
- Lineout - the All Blacks can't afford to give the Boks lineout ball like they did last year. They must win their own ball.
- Physical battle at breakdown - The Blues showed the template to beat the Bulls by out muscling them there at this very ground in the Super 14. The All Blacks must have the same intensity.
- Goalkicking - you're not going to beat the Boks if you don't convert pressure into points.
The referee is Allan Lewis from Ireland who I have no complaints about (though Stu Dickinson does lurk on the touchline).
Verdict:- Should the All Blacks gain enough possession they will want this game too much not to win. I don't see it being a high scoring game as the new law intrepretations are unlikely to turn such a big test match into a free flowing spectacle.
All Blacks by six points
