A bit late posting this but always worth a laugh to see how wrong you were!
Well after the success of week 9 it is easy to start believing your own press & get carried away with the options this week. However looking at the match ups it seems that this week it is a lot more difficult to spot “value”. But here goes ……….
First match of the weekend is the clash between the Chiefs & the Stormers and as detailed the Emotional Hedge comes into play. Saying that, the Stormers represent very good value to win (head to head) at $1-75. The Chiefs were outclassed last week by the Bulls & the Stormers are almost the equal of the Bulls but with probably more strength upfront. Further injuries to the Chiefs don’t help their cause & a tight five that contains Afeaki, Toby Smith (who?) & Retallick will struggle to get some quality ball. The only issue here is what the Stormers will win by. I find it hard to decide between the 12 & under or 13 plus options as the Chiefs may be lifted by the home crowd & it is definitely the last throw of the dice for them. So I will stick to the Stormers to beat the Chief (head to head) at $1-75.
Next up is the Brumbies hosting the Hurricanes in Canberra. The Brumbies come into this game having handed the Cheetahs while the Hurricanes had the bye last weekend neither of which provide, what I consider, a decent build up. While the Brumbies will gain some confidence from the large win, injuries have forced a reshuffle, most notably in the backs where Toomua will be missed & Giteau has to return to first five. Meanwhile the Hurricanes are also missing key personnel in Weepu & both openside flankers, Waldrom & Lowe. The selection of Cruden, for only his second start of the season, means a new pairing in the halves with Keats. Nick Crosswell, more of a blindside flanker, will don the vital number 7 jersey. Saying that the Hurricanes, like the Chiefs, should be desperate to win but the Brumbies are very tough to beat at home especially when it gets colder in Canberra (when isn’t it cold there at night?) So I will take the safe option of the Brumbies to beat the Hurricanes (head to head) at $1-40.
The following match is the Blues vs the Force at the Garden of Eden (well half of it). Inconsistency has marked the Blues season while the Force have started to recover from a horror start as key players like Pocock, Brown & Shepherd return to the side. Saying that they still lack a high quality first five to control the game & also have struggled to get across the tryline. The big issue with the Blues this week is who is going to play following further injuries to their tight five and how this affected their build up. We all know it starts up front & it will be a much stronger side if Afoa & Woodcock play. I favour the Blues but think it will be tight so I will take the Blues by 12 & under at $2-80 & the Force by 12 & under at $4-50 with the stake weighted towards the Blues.
Game four of the weekend will see the Crusaders wallop the Cheetahs but by how much is the question? They are paying $1-01 to win head to head & only $1-08 to win by 13 or more. The points start is 30.5 points which is the highest set by the TAB this season. The Crusaders have rested Fruean, Guildford & Read as they prepare for their overseas tour & there are also injury doubts over Carter. This is likely to disrupt their rhythm but by how much I am not sure. Meanwhile the Cheetahs are still without Juan Smith & have made a lot of changes for the game – have they given up? I am just unsure as to the winning margin so have left this game alone.
What follows promises to be the game of the round as the in-form Reds take on the Bulls at Suncorp Stadium. The Reds have been the surprise packet this season & having just played 3 South African teams in a row will know what to expect from the Bulls. Saying that, the trip back will not help them. The Bulls bounced back well from their loss to the Blues by dominating the Chiefs upfront & tactically. One interesting statistic is that the Bulls have never won their last game on tour & the Springboks (dominated by Bulls players) struggle to win against the Wallabies in Brisbane. I think the Bulls may have a bit more tactical nous in a tight battle which I expect this to be. I am going to take the Reds by 12 & under at $3-10 & the Bulls by 12 & under at $2-75 with the stake weighted slightly towards the Blues.
Last game of the week sees the Lions host the Sharks. The Lions seem to be all over the place with constantly changing personnel & this week sending a SOS to Ray Mordt to help with some defensive coaching. Meanwhile the Sharks have some momentum having won their previous 3 matches and the bye last week should have freshened them up. I have no doubt that the Sharks will win & the TAB has that priced about right at $1-20. South African derbies are traditionally close encounters but I think the need for the Sharks to gain four try bonus points from their remaining matches to have any chance of making the semi finals means that they will play a more attacking game. So I will take the Sharks on the points start of 11.5 points at $1-90. My fear there is that they rack up four tries quite easily like the Reds last week & shut up shop allowing the Lions back into the match.
So that’s it for this week. As I said at the start I feel less confident than the week before. Let’s see how it pans out!
