Heh I've even managed to post this before all the games have been played!
So back on the horse after a losing week – as always the question is – where is the value?
Once again the first match of the weekend is a Friday night in the Tron, this time the Chiefs hosting the very travel weary Cheetahs. After their last two performances it is very difficult for a Chiefs fan to feel any confidence in them even playing the Cheetahs. Ian Foster has pulled out the axe & sent Lauaki, Leonard & Kahui to the bench. If this was stronger opposition you would say it was as useful as rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. But the Cheetahs have been struggling since week 4 of the competition & have a horrific overseas record in Super rugby. Saying that, Juan Smith returns for this match & he is their talisman & is likely to evoke an emotional response from his team mates to the death of his father. Always beware a team that plays on that type of emotion. The TAB has the Chiefs raging hot favourites at $1-06 against the Cheetahs at $8-00 & the points start at a staggering 19.5 points. This is simply too much confidence in a stumbling Chiefs outfit so I will take a good slice of the Cheetahs getting a 19.5 points start at $1-80. I am also going to take a small flutter on the Cheetahs to win by a margin of 12 & under at $10-00 as the odds are just too attractive to me.
What follows in Brisbane should be the game of the weekend, much like last week. The Stormers & the Reds are probably the two form teams in the competition. It really was a staggering effort by the Reds last week to return from South Africa & then beat the Bulls. They really celebrated at the final whistle & I just wonder if they will suffer a hangover this week as it will have been an exhausting match for them. Meanwhile the Stormers were hugely impressive in beating the Chiefs last week. At the start of the season I thought their attack was lacking & they weren’t giving game breakers like Bryan Habana enough opportunities. This seems to have been rectified & they have added fluid attack & support play to the best defence in the competition (they concede an average of only 12 points a game). I just get the feeling that the Stormers will have too much power & more petrol in the tank so I am taking the Stormers to win head to head at $1-80.
Next up is the Force hosting the Crusaders in Perth. Traditionally this is the time of the season the Crusaders start to hit their straps as they build up for the semi finals. I thought the Force were building a bit of momentum into their season before last week but they disappointed at Eden Park. Strangely though the Force have a good record against the Crusaders, having drawn twice against them in four matches. The Crusaders have two tough games in the Republic against the Stormers & the Bulls so I think they will be very focused on picking up as many competition points as possible in Perth which is borne out by Edmund naming his strongest line up. Given the ease in which the Blues scored points against the Force I will take the Crusaders to win by 13 points & over at $1-82.
The first match on Saturday is the New Zealand derby between the Highlanders & the Hurricanes in Dunedin. The Highlanders have once again been disappointing & the fact they have used three different first fives this season shows a lack of continuity & strategy. Throw in injuries to Donnelly & Mackintosh and they have lacked quality upfront. The Hurricanes battled to a very good win in Canberra last weekend. They still have a chance to make the semi finals if they win every game & other results go their way. They have far more to gain from this match & I expect them to be the more motivated of the two sides. Still I expect a tight contest given the NZ derby factor & it’s a night game in Dunedin in late April. So I have pumped for the Hurricanes to win by a margin of 12 & under points at $2-75. I have also been looking at the Total points in a match betting option recently. For this match the TAB have drawn the line at 53 points & under or 54 points & over. Given the likely conditions, the normal tight margins between NZ sides playing each & the fact that neither sides attack has been impressive this season I have taken the Total points in the match to be 53 points & under at $1-57.
The last game of the weekend in Australasia is between the Waratahs & the Brumbies in Sydney. The Brumbies have been disappointing this season & have definitely missed the injured Stirling Mortlock & George Smith. They also don’t seem to have gelled in the halves & were very disappointing at home last week. The Waratahs have gone about their business quietly & were even leading the competition two weeks ago. They proved they have a bit of steel as well pushing the Crusaders close in Christchurch. However they had a bye last weekend & I am wary how teams perform the week after a rest. Looking at the table, the Brumbies will be desperate to win as a loss could put them 7 to 8 points behind 4th spot with only 3 games to play. I expect the Waratahs to win but given it is a local derby as well I am going to take the Waratahs to win by 12 & under points at $2-75 & the Brumbies to win by 12 & under points at $3-65.
The Bulls return from their trip down under to play the winless Lions at Fortress Loftus. They have rested Fourie du Preez but otherwise are close to full strength with the return of Bakkies imminent. While it wasn’t an all-conquering tour for the Bulls they picked up more competition points (ten) than ever before on tour. They just love playing at Loftus & have been priced as very short favourites, $1-04 to win & $1-20 to win by 13 points or more. The Lions showed a bit more fight last week against the Sharks but still let in early tries. If they do this against the Bulls it could lead to a stampede of points. The points start is 22.5 points which seems about right to me given it is a local derby & the Bulls have been travelling. I think it will be a high scoring affair similar to some of the earlier Bulls games in the season due to both teams’ styles & the afternoon kickoff. So I am going to take Total points in the match to be 62 points & over at $1-85.
The final game of the week in Durban where the Sharks take on the Blues also promises to be a tight affair. Both teams have shown glimpses of form over the last month & the Sharks have actually won their last four matches after their terrible start to the season. The Blues seem to follow a win with a loss & have only won 2 games in a row once this season (weeks 2 & 3). They have a good opportunity to press for a semi final spot if they win this week as their last 3 games are against the Cheetahs, Lions & Chiefs. It will be a game of contrasting styles & I expect the Sharks to play a similar forward orientated style like they used to beat the Reds. The Sharks have a very good record against the Blues & I expect them to edge it but given the likely tight contest I am going to take the Sharks to win by 12 & under points at $2-60 & the Blues to win by 12 & under points at $3-30.
So that’s it for another week. May the force be with you.
