The All Blacks go head to head with the Springboks tomorrow in the heart of Soweto at the ground where Spain were crowned World Cup champions & should have taken home a gold medal for diving too. While it is beyond doubt that the All Blacks will be crowned Tri-Nations champions this year this test is hugely important for the Boks as they attempt to put the miseries of their tour behind them. How the All Blacks stand up to the challenge against a very fired up Boks at altitude is going to tell us a lot about them.
Being based in South Africa gives you a feeling for the mindset of the Boks & to me they still seem to be a state of denial about their losses in NZ & Aussie. That the Clown Coach can say he has studied the video & is not sure how they lost those 3 tests beggars belief. They still seem to have that siege mentality that the world is against them with even the ridiculous talk this week of leaving SANZAR (all because their idiot coach was asked to account for some of his ridiculous musings).
Still they are going to be dangerous as a wounded animal always is. There is going to be a crowd of 85,000 roaring them on & expect a very physical opening to the match. However I'm not sure if the venue in Soweto will be much to their benefit and as Lozza Mains has pointed out it might have been tougher playing them at Ellis Park. There is bound to be a bit of drama as the Fatman celebrates his 100 test & whether this adds much to the Boks desire is debatable. They will not be lacking desire in any case, the question is whether desire will be enough.
The mass changes to the Boks just signals to me that they are not really sure what they are doing & what their game plan should be (shades of the All Blacks in 1998). I think this uncertainty must flow through to their performance. The return of Juan Smith will defintely add some steel to their mix but the All Blacks seem to have such an all round game at the moment that you need more than steel to beat them.
Once again the breakdown will be key & McCaw will come under focus again for perceived unjustices. I also think the lineout will be a key part of this match & the All Blacks must win their own ball there. Another key area will be the ability of the All Blacks to get over the advantage line in midfield & set a good platform for phase play. I still think that Nonu gives the All Blacks a huge advantage in this area & his clash with de Villiers will be very interesting.
The other key area will be the speed of the match as the Boks just don't seem to be able to match the tempo of New Zealand or Australia at the moment. Expect a few "injuries" (as often employed by Richard O'Connor with the AURFC U21's) to slow the pace of the game down. They will also be desperate to stop the All Blacks quick lineouts as well.
So a very intense start to the match but if it plays out at a fast tempo the Boks may be struggling to stay with the All Blacks later in the match. I think the All Blacks will just have too much of a running game for the Boks & I am picking the All Blacks to win by 8 points.
