Should be at the MCG - All Blacks v Australia 1st test Preview

This test should be played at a famous sporting amphitheatre rather than a non-descript AFL ground! 
 
Anyway, for the first time in two years, this weekend’s test between the All Blacks & the Wallabies is not being billed as Graham Henry against Robbie Deans with even Chris Rattue billing the All Blacks as clear favourites & handing them praise for the way they have played this year.  With both teams having already dismantled the Boks who will be better at executing this new breed of up tempo international rugby?

 
Or more importantly should this weekend be labeled as Richie McCaw against David Peacock?  Both have been accused of getting away with murder by the South African press in the last 2 weeks & on occasion it has been hard to argue with that view.  Quick attacking ball or slowing the opposition’s ball (with the occasional turnover) is vital to the style of rugby played by these two teams in the Tri-Nations so far.

 
Dare I say it but the rulings of Craig Joubert in this area will have a big impact on the match.  I know the Stormers thought they were hard done by in his rulings there in the Super 14 final.  He does tend to give teams a bit of leeway in competing for the ball so this may slow things down a bit.  Richie has his own views on how to push the envelope in this regard.
 
 
The battle of the breakdown comes down to more than just the number 7’s though and the rest of the loose forwards look rather even with Rocky Elsom returning to form last week matching the in-form Kieran Read.  I’m yet to be convinced about Richard Brown at 8 for Aussie & with the impact of Brad Thorn, Keven Mealamu & Owen Franks around the ruck, I expect the All Blacks to have the important upper hand there.

 
Because if they don’t, then it creates opportunities for one of the best halfbacks the world has seen in a while – Will Genia (as pointed out to me by a knowledgeable Mooloo expert).  The way to contain him is to starve him of chances to use quick ball.  Simple as that or he will hurt you.

 
Other important points for this weekend’s match up are;
 

•  Lineout - after the masterful display in the first test against the Japies some old unwanted problems resurfaced in the 2nd test with the All Blacks losing 4 out of their 10 throws.  Not good enough.

• Scrummaging – should be a given with the All Blacks looking for a bit of ascendancy though the return of Moore to the Aussie front row will help them (and at the breakdown as well).  If the turf condition is as unstable as it has been claimed this week then we could be in for a number of resets which is energy sapping stuff & will test fitness levels.

•  The loss of the Tokoroa Kid (or should that be the Carlos Spencer clone) – not so much in what Aussie lose from his absence but by the lack of form that Matt Giteau has shown in the number 10 jersey for 2 years now.  To me he seems better suited to 2nd five – maybe he & Barnes will rotate positions during the match.

•  Nonu - how will the relatively small Aussie midfield of Barnes & Horne handle his physical threat & his ability to set a platform for the AB forwards to work off over the gain line?  This is a great area for the All Blacks to exploit to get that vital forward momentum & put the Aussie defense on the back foot.      

• The boot - will both teams continue to put it away or play a more measured game against a similar opposition?  Its hard not see the All Blacks testing out the School Kid on Aussie’s right wing or the Aussies putting up a Garryowen for Ashley-Cooper to chase.

•  Poor weather – hate to say it but if it does materialise, New Zealanders are a lot more used to playing in it than the Convicts.

 
 
The home ground factor is an interesting one with this being played in the heart of Aussie Rules country – there is likely to be as many Kiwi supporters in the crowd as Aussies.  Melbourne is not the daunting arena for the All Blacks that Homebush or Suncorp can be though Aussie did win the last time the two teams met there.
 

There are two ways to view the statistic that the All Blacks have won 7 in a row against their Trans-Tasman foe.  One is that the Aussies must be due (especially as they have led at halftime in 4 of those) or that they lack confidence & have a mental block against the All Blacks.

 
Neither team should be suffering from fatigue so once again it comes down to hunger & execution on the night.  The Aussies may have the slight edge in hunger (due to that loss record) but the experience factor & also the form of key players in the All Blacks should give them the edge in turning the real All Black game plan into a solid winning margin.

 
All Blacks by 9 points.