It's that time of the year again for the first All Black squad to be picked & the Auckland Herald's expert, aka the bearded gnome, has released his selection.
 
Given that we are less than two years from the RWC & there is only one more Super rugby competition to assess form this may be the selectors' last chance to experiment (though there is always the end of year tour).  Throw in the number of long term injuries & a number of players on the comeback trail from injury and this could be a very interesting squad.
 

First of all the injuries; Sivivatu, Masaga, Toeava, Nonu, Delany, Ali Williams, Eaton & Hore will play no part in the squad.  In addition Muliaina, McAlister, Donald, Donnelly, Boric & Flynn are back playing club rugby but whether this is enough to prove their fitness is another matter.
 
It's fair to assume that if you are fit & were part of that magnificent victory over France at the end of last year then you will make this squad as generally Henry & his sidekicks are loyal to their previous selections.  That means the folllowing will be picked; Mils, Jane, Conrad Smith, Carter, Cowan, Read, McCaw, Kaino, Donnelly, Thorn, Woodcock & Tialata.
 
If you add those who were on the bench it also includes; McAlister, Donald, Ellis, Latimer, Boric, Owen Franks & Flynn.  However it is very debatable if most of these have shown enough form this year.
 
The interesting areas appear to be the midfield, back up 1st five, loose forward mix, locks & back up hooker (haven't left much out have I?)
 
Wynne Gray's proposition to play Mils at 2nd five is ridiculous - haven't we learned he shouldn't be moved round the backline & players playing out of position?  Kahui had a very poor Super 14 particularly on defense & shouldn't be rewarded with selection.  This leaves McAlister, Donald & a specialist (probably Benson Stanley) as candidates (how Tamati Ellison must regret his decision to leave NZ rugby).  Given that Delany is injured & Cruden too young then McAlister & Donald come into contention as a back up 1st five as well as does Brett (who was called into a squad last year as back up).  Slade would have been a contender for back up 1st five but has played there only once this season.
 
Loose forward mix might depend on what they do for a back up to McCaw.  I read recently that Henry stated the requirements of the position may have changed which might count against Latimer.  This panel loves Thomson so he will be in so it depends on whether they go for a specilist like Latimer or even Karl Lowe or blood someone like Vito into the mix.  It seems So'oialo's days are gone.
 
The choice at lock depends on whether they want to test a young guy like Sam Whitelock, an utility like Michael Paterson or play a veteran like Chris Jack or go back to last year's shock pick, Bryn Evans.  Jack is past his best & I can't see Paterson being an interantional lock (imagine him & Thorn as your 2 main lineout options).  Is it too soon for Whitelock?  Appears it was last year for Isaac Ross (remember him?)
 
Back up hooker depends on whether Flynn is judged fit enough as Mealamu will be first choice.  With an eye to the RWC Flynn's track record of injury may count against him but the cupboard looks a bit bare with de Malmanche (who can't throw) & Elliot the other contenders.
 
Other wild cards for the squad include Dagg (in my view one of the best backs in the Super 14 for the last 2 seasons), Ben Smith (again), Rokocoko, Ranger, Willison, Cruden, Fotuali'i, Messam, Paulo & Afoa (as a converted hooker).
 
I think the selectors will pick the following;
 
Muliaina
Jane
Guildford
C Smith
B Stanley
Carter
Cowan
Read
McCaw
Kaino
Donnelly
Thorn
Woodcock
O Franks
Mealamu
 
Flynn
Tialata
Boric
Thomson
Mathewson
Brett
Rokocoko
 
 
B Franks
Vito
McAlister
Ranger
 
I would love to see Dagg in the mix (instead of anyone outside the above 1st XV) but with Jane covering fullback I can't see them picking three options there.  Also an investment in a back up hooker - Hika Elliot.
 
If they pick any of the following I will be sick; Kahui, Fruean & Crotty (badly shown up at Newlands), Donald, Ellis, Jack, Bekhuis, Crockett (struggled against Italy last year) & de Malmanche.